Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Advancing an Extra Base on a Hit or an Error

The advantages of stealing based on the break-even probabilities also applies to taking an extra base on a hit or an error.

A base coach could use the break-even probability to determine whether to send the runner home from second on a single or send a runner home from first on a double.  He might also use it when considering whether to hold the runner from first at second or call him to third when the ball is hit to over his head to right field.

A base runner could use the break-even probabilities to determine whether to go from first to third on a single to left field or take an extra base on an error in the infield.

A batter could use these break-even probabilities to determine whether it is worthwhile to attempt to take an extra base on a hit.  For example, when it is worthwhile to attempt to turn a double into a triple or a single into a double.


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